Eight factors that could make the 2026 midterms very different from what we’re being told.
Is it really going to be a blue tsunami for Democrats in today’s midterms, or just a blue ripple?

For months, political commentators have made the same predictions. Polls favor Democrats. Republicans will lose the House, possibly the Senate, perhaps both. Americans have turned against President Trump, and Democrats have effectively won the election before voters even cast their ballots.
Well, I’m not buying it.
Yes, history favors the party out of power in midterm elections. Presidents typically lose congressional seats, and their parties frequently surrender control of at least one chamber.
But history doesn’t determine the future.
In 2002, President George W. Bush’s Republicans gained seats in both chambers following the September 11 attacks. In 1902, Theodore Roosevelt’s Republicans also gained seats in both chambers after the Philippine-American War.
Both elections unfolded under unusual circumstances, and I would argue that 2026 is anything but an ordinary election year.
Here are eight reasons why.
1. Trump is a wartime president
Let’s begin with Iran.
Whatever Americans think about the conflict, the United States faces a serious military confrontation with a regime that has fueled instability and terrorism for decades.
The Trump administration has inflicted substantial damage on Iran’s military capabilities. Economic pressures and domestic unrest have compounded the regime’s difficulties.
But the conflict isn’t over.
Will Americans view this election as an opportunity to change course, or will they opt for continuity while the conflict remains unresolved?
History offers examples of both outcomes. Voters don’t automatically reward wartime presidents.
Still, I believe the desire to bring an unfinished conflict to a conclusion could influence this election more than political pundits realize.
2. The Democrats’ financial problems
Money matters in politics, particularly in congressional races, where advertising, organization, and voter outreach can make a considerable difference.
The financial disparity between the two national parties deserves attention.
The Republican National Committee entered the final months of this election cycle with a substantially larger cash reserve than the Democratic National Committee, which continues to struggle with debt.
That gives Republicans flexibility.
They can reinforce competitive races, expand advertising, and respond to unexpected opportunities. Meanwhile, Democrats must make difficult decisions about where to focus their resources.
Remember, Trump overcame significant spending disadvantages in prior presidential campaigns. Money alone doesn’t determine an election.
But in tight House and Senate contests, additional spending in the final weeks can make an enormous difference.
Republicans shouldn’t overlook that advantage.
3. Immigration enforcement and the voter rolls
Immigration has dominated much of Trump’s presidency, and his administration has made deportations and immigration enforcement central priorities.
Americans hold strong opinions about border security, the rule of law, and state governments’ responsibilities. The administration has also increased pressure on states to maintain accurate voter rolls and to enforce voter eligibility requirements.
Consider California.
California issues driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants while operating an automatic voter registration system. Although state law prohibits noncitizens from registering, California has acknowledged past registration errors.
In October 2026, the Justice Department sued California, alleging that more than 20,000 likely noncitizens had registered and received mail ballots. California disputes those allegations, and an independent analysis has questioned the accuracy of the federal government’s list.
Here’s the question: Does California have adequate safeguards to ensure that only eligible citizens receive ballots?
(Read the Justice Department’s October 2026 lawsuit announcement.)
California’s past registration errors and the current federal lawsuit have renewed scrutiny of the state’s election administration.
This demonstrates why accurate voter rolls and reliable citizenship verification warrant serious attention to ensure election integrity.
Trump has made these issues central to his administration’s agenda. Today, voters will begin to show whether they support or reject those efforts.
4. The October surprises
And then there are the October surprises that have hit Democrats hard.
Consider Alaska.
The Senate race between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola has attracted attention because of another candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
Reporting has linked individuals associated with Peltola’s campaign to efforts to recruit the second Sullivan. This appears to be a ploy to confuse voters and divert support from the incumbent.
Peltola denies knowledge of the recruitment effort, and authorities have not resolved the allegations of criminal wrongdoing.
Nevertheless, the controversy has drawn national attention at a particularly inconvenient time for Democrats.
(Read the Associated Press coverage of the Alaska Senate controversy.)
Investigations and allegations involving Democratic political figures elsewhere have also attracted attention.
Of course, accusations don’t establish guilt, and investigations don’t always lead to convictions. But political controversies can influence voters long before investigators or courts reach their conclusions.
Will these developments reinforce doubts some voters already have about the Democratic Party? We’ll soon find out.
5. The Democratic Party’s internal divisions
Perhaps one of the most interesting developments is the growing tension between the Democratic establishment and its democratic socialist wing, known as the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
And we’re talking about more than disagreements over campaign strategy.
Democrats face fundamental differences over economic policy, Israel, foreign affairs, and the party’s future direction.
Want to see how serious those divisions have become? Look at Michigan.
Abdul El-Sayed defeated Representative Haley Stevens in the Democratic Senate primary. But just two days before the general election, Stevens did something extraordinary.
She endorsed Republican Mike Rogers.
That’s right. A prominent Democratic congresswoman endorsed the Republican candidate over her own party’s nominee.
And she didn’t do it quietly.
Stevens appeared alongside Rogers at a predominantly Black church in Detroit before publicly announcing her endorsement.
Democratic leaders reacted immediately.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer condemned her decision as a betrayal. Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Curtis Hertel went further, announcing that Stevens no longer belonged to the Michigan Democratic Party.
Think about that.
Just days before a critical Senate election, Democrats were fighting among themselves. A former Democratic Senate candidate endorsed the Republican nominee, and her party showed her the door.
(Read the Associated Press report on Stevens’ endorsement and the Democratic backlash.)
Stevens and El-Sayed have also clashed over Israel, antisemitism, and the Democratic Party’s direction.
And that brings us to the real problem facing Democrats.
Can the party accommodate its increasingly influential democratic socialist wing while retaining the support of traditional Democrats?
I believe this tension could have consequences that extend well beyond today’s election.
When prominent Democrats publicly support Republican candidates rather than their party’s nominees, it’s difficult to argue that everything is fine within the Democratic Party.
6. Trump’s rallies and his influence on Republican turnout
I’ve watched presidents campaign in midterm elections throughout my life, but Trump approaches these elections differently.
He has built his political identity around mass rallies and a personal connection with voters, including many who haven’t traditionally participated in every election.
Now he’s attempting to transfer that connection to Republican congressional candidates.
His message is straightforward: Treat the midterms as though his own name appeared on the ballot.
President Trump wants to transform hundreds of individual House and Senate contests into a national referendum on his presidency.
But here’s the question.
Will voters who supported Trump in presidential elections also support Republican congressional candidates when his name doesn’t appear on the ballot?
That’s no small challenge. A president’s personal popularity among supporters doesn’t automatically transfer to other candidates.
But Trump’s rallies and continued involvement in the campaign introduce a variable that conventional polling may not fully capture.
And I wouldn’t dismiss it.
7. The Democrats’ message and the declining influence of traditional media
What exactly are Democrats offering voters?
Much of their campaign messaging focuses on opposing Trump and his administration. But where is their compelling vision for America’s future?
And then there’s the polling.
I’ve grown increasingly skeptical of political polling, especially how the media uses it to shape public expectations. At times, it seems less like an effort to inform Americans and more like an attempt to convince conservatives that their candidates have already lost.
Consider the last two presidential elections in which Trump won.
In 2016, several prominent election forecasters gave Hillary Clinton about a 90 percent chance of winning the presidency. Some even placed her chances higher.
And what happened?
Trump defeated her.
Then came 2024.
Throughout the campaign, public polls repeatedly showed Kamala Harris leading Trump. Even as Election Day approached, some surveys still showed her ahead.
Trump defeated her, too.
But here’s where things get interesting.
After the election, David Plouffe, a senior adviser to the Harris campaign, acknowledged that the campaign’s internal polling never showed Harris leading Trump in the battleground states.
Think about that.
While public polls suggested Harris was ahead, her campaign reviewed data that told a different story.
(Read David Plouffe’s remarks about the Harris campaign’s internal polling.)
Does that prove that every pollster deliberately manipulated the numbers? Of course not. Polling organizations use different methods, and even legitimate surveys can produce different results. However, it raises questions about how the media presents polling data and why Americans should place so much confidence in election predictions.
Now we’re hearing the same confident forecasts for today’s midterms.
Perhaps the polls will prove accurate this time.
But I would argue that Americans have good reason to question the certainty with which commentators make these predictions.
Polls don’t cast ballots. Americans do.
And no matter how often the media predicts a blue tsunami, voters will decide the outcome.
8. Trump’s continued influence within the Republican Party
Finally, the political establishment must not overlook one more thing: President Trump’s influence extends well beyond his rallies.
If he’s become as politically irrelevant as some commentators claim, why do Republican candidates keep seeking his endorsement?
Why do so many campaign alongside him and emphasize their ties to his presidency? Surely, if he were as failed a president as the media would like to believe, these candidates would be avoiding him like the plague.
I believe the answer is straightforward: Trump retains considerable influence over the Republican electorate.
That doesn’t mean every American approves of his presidency. Many clearly do not.
But within the Republican Party, his endorsement remains a political asset that candidates actively seek. That tells us something important about the party’s direction.
Trump hasn’t simply won elections. He has reshaped the Republican Party around a political movement that increasingly defines itself by his Make America Great Again priorities and leadership.
Whether individual candidates benefit from that association in competitive districts remains an open question. But one thing seems clear to me: Trump isn’t going away, and neither is the political movement he ignited.
Today’s election will help reveal how much influence that movement still wields.
So, what happens today?
I’ve made no secret of my skepticism about the conventional midterm narrative.
The polls favor Democrats in several key contests. Historical precedent also suggests that Republicans face a difficult political environment.
But historical averages, political commentators, and betting markets don’t decide elections.
Voters do.
And I believe there are enough unusual circumstances surrounding this election to challenge the conventional wisdom.
A wartime presidency. A significant disparity in national party fundraising. Immigration enforcement. October controversies. Democratic infighting. Trump’s rallies. Declining trust in the media. And Trump’s continued influence within the Republican Party.
None of these factors guarantees an electoral outcome. Taken together, however, they could produce a result that surprises many people.
So here is my prediction: Given these factors, I believe Republicans will retain control of both the House and Senate, provided the MAGA base turns out in sufficient numbers. At the very least, I believe Republicans will keep the Senate.
Remember, we overcame media and polling manipulation in 2016 and 2024 by showing up. Trump’s election-integrity measures could make the 2026 midterms the most secure elections of our lifetimes. If MAGA turns out, America wins. So no dooming or black-pilling today.
That’s my prediction. Today, we’ll begin finding out whether I’m right.
Don’t let polls, pundits, or betting markets convince you that your vote doesn’t matter. Today, November 3, is Election Day. The stakes are too high to sit this election out. Make your voice heard at the ballot box.
And as for that much-publicized blue tsunami?
We may discover that it was nothing more than a puddle.

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